BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Arkansas has surged: up 423% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+423%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Blue Heron Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Blue Heron has surged in Arkansas: up 423% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Great Blue Heron Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Arkansas is projected to rise about 137% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.09–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±151.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+137%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±151.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Arkansas is projected to rise about 137% by 2029 — from 0.54 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.09–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±151.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.052.4
20261.20.062.4
20271.20.072.4
20281.30.082.4
20291.30.092.5

Great Blue Heron Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harrisburg920121982
England620242010
Ramsey319971973
South Bend320231981
Crows319901969
Poyen320031974
Saffell320191971
Coal Hill320231977
Maynard320241986
Stamps220241967
West Tyler219821974
Stark220241973
Lurton220051983
Compton220191972
Centerton220232010
Ravenden Springs220132010
Russell220212010
Gillett220242010
Lockesburg220182011
Boston Mtn.220062001
Nance220151993
Augusta 2220162002
Old Milo120071977
Eudora120161974
Locust Bayou120101973

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.