BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in New Mexico has surged: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

+87%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Blue Heron Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Blue Heron has surged in New Mexico: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

Great Blue Heron Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in New Mexico is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in New Mexico is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.100.000.24
20270.100.000.24
20280.100.000.24
20290.110.000.24
20300.110.000.24

Great Blue Heron Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cooley Lake220011996
Maxwell220251998
Laborcita220191996
Bluewater Lake220072007
Cerro Verde220162016
San Simon120082008
Cebolla120182018
Ojo Sarco120242023
Farley120142014
La Cienega120072001
Pecos120042004
San Antonio119741974
Dulce120222008
Angel Fire 2120212021
Jornada120232010
Laborcita 2120252022
Sedan120221994
Vallecitos120242021
Gallinas120191997
Variadero120112011
Rosebud120172001
Pastura120162016
Reserve120091996
Bitter Lake120192003
La Plata120132013

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.