BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Nebraska has surged: up 468% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+468%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Blue Heron Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Blue Heron has surged in Nebraska: up 468% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Great Blue Heron Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Nebraska is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 0.72 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.63–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.63–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±83%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Nebraska is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 0.72 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.63–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.561.5
20271.10.581.5
20281.10.591.6
20291.10.611.6
20301.10.631.6

Great Blue Heron Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Murdock720252018
Brownlee520251990
Humboldt520252023
Johnson320251971
Petersburg320252009
Piester Lake320251969
Crawford320241981
Julian220241970
Kenesaw220221986
Gretna220171990
Agate 2220242002
Murray Lake220251987
Hay Springs220242018
Oglala Nat. Grass.220252000
Culbertson220252025
Hendley220242019
Liberty 2220062004
Winside 2220132010
Liberty120031972
Belvidere120251991
Seward120211971
Kearney120191969
Sumner120131979
Holbrook120241985
Bartley120231985

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.