BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in North Carolina has surged: up 389% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+389%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Blue Heron Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Blue Heron has surged in North Carolina: up 389% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Blue Heron Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in North Carolina is projected to rise about 69% by 2030 — from 0.66 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.60–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+69%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.60–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in North Carolina is projected to rise about 69% by 2030 — from 0.66 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.60–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.551.6
20271.10.561.6
20281.10.581.6
20291.10.591.6
20301.10.601.6

Great Blue Heron Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Durham520251996
Speed420251968
Mount Airy420242008
Cherokee420252017
Brevard320191988
Genoa320211990
Wilgrove320232002
Flay320231990
Dortches320251990
Bullock320252004
Cayton320242011
Shallotte219911966
Wards Corner220241982
Arapahoe219891985
Jordan220241997
Rose220191970
Saxapahaw220181977
Climax220251981
California220121975
Call220241996
Rowland220221993
Milltail Cr220251992
Mooresville 2220212006
Newport220221996
Cypress Cr220191990

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.