BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in West Virginia has surged: up 390% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+390%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Blue Heron Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Blue Heron has surged in West Virginia: up 390% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Great Blue Heron Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in West Virginia is projected to rise about 259% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.07–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+259%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.48Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±109.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in West Virginia is projected to rise about 259% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.07–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.460.050.87
20260.470.060.88
20270.470.060.88
20280.480.070.89
20290.480.070.89

Great Blue Heron Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hanover1220211995
Lost River420232013
Welch320222016
Rockport320242000
Pt Pleasant220231995
Spencer220231986
Valley Head220182002
Mo Of Seneca220071995
Washburn220221988
Bebee220161977
Meadowville220122011
Clinton220241987
Glade Run219991999
Hix120192012
Pedro120062006
Stollings120062005
Bramwell120152015
Ghent120222019
Clear Creek120211995
Breeden120232023
Meadland120172010
Hubbardstown120222022
Clendenin120212021
Nicut120192011
Fayetteville119951995

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.