BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Virginia

All statesWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Virginia has surged: up 160% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+160%Since 1968
71Routes In State
58Years

Notable Great Blue Heron Trends in Virginia

long arc increasecomputed index

Great Blue Heron has surged in Virginia: up 160% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Blue Heron Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Virginia is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 0.64 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.96 (95% range 0.47–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+51%Change by 2029
0.96Projected 2029 index
0.47–1.495% range
±64.6%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.920.431.4
20260.930.441.4
20270.940.451.4
20280.950.461.4
20290.960.471.4

Great Blue Heron Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Virginia.
Colonial Pky1419981992
Hall920231980
Loft Mtn620092009
Brodnax420231977
Brandon420241992
Star Tannery320241982
Edinburg320242007
David320131981
Natural Brid320241985
Chincoteag W320241992
Newsoms320241980
Cornland320141980
Tryme220191995
Putnam220112011
Covington220191986
Rural Retrt220231989
Sharps220191977
Cape Charles220181992
Saltville220242011
Irisburg220231991
Backbay219721966
Gladys220192007
Appomattox220161997
Brandy Station220242023
Dismal Swamp220141992

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.