BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Virginia

All statesWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Virginia has surged: up 204% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+204%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Blue Heron Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Blue Heron has surged in Virginia: up 204% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Blue Heron Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Virginia is projected to rise about 39% by 2030 — from 0.69 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.47–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.95Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.47–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Virginia is projected to rise about 39% by 2030 — from 0.69 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.47–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.910.421.4
20270.920.441.4
20280.930.451.4
20290.940.461.4
20300.950.471.4

Great Blue Heron Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Colonial Pky1419981992
Hall920231980
Brodnax720251977
Loft Mtn620092009
David320131981
Chincoteag W320241992
Newsoms320241980
Cornland320141980
Lake Anna320252022
Covington220191986
Rural Retrt220251989
Natural Brid220251985
Sharps220191977
Cape Charles220181992
Saltville220242011
Irisburg220251991
Backbay219721966
Gladys220192007
Appomattox220161997
Brandy Station220242023
Dismal Swamp220141992
Ft Pickett N219931993
Ft Pickett S219951994
Taylorstown 2220252012
Walkers220221992

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.