BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in New York

All statesWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in New York has surged: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+114%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Blue Heron Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Blue Heron has surged in New York: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Blue Heron Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in New York is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 0.77 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.42–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±107.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.42–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±107.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in New York is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 0.77 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.42–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±107.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.401.9
20261.10.411.9
20271.10.411.9
20281.10.421.9
20291.20.421.9

Great Blue Heron Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Romulus1720001968
Highland920221977
Waddington819981982
Wanakena620241989
West Seneca520041971
Sabattis519831966
Balmat519971977
Sheridan419981967
Gabriels420181975
Warwick 2420131975
Trumansburg320241978
Nashville320181967
Alder Creek320041971
Ellenburg320061989
Naples320241982
Philadelphia320241981
Oxford 2320241977
N Victory319691967
St Regis Fls320161976
Westhampton220211981
Meridale220241970
Whitney Pt220181966
Oxford219741967
Macdougall220231972
Branchport220231974

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.