BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Utah

All statesWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Utah has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-61%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Blue Heron Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Blue Heron has fallen sharply in Utah: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Great Blue Heron Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.88). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Utah is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.88). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.270.000.90
20270.270.000.89
20280.260.000.89
20290.260.000.88
20300.250.000.88

Great Blue Heron Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Randolph420221993
Jensen420111995
Notom420242024
Promontory320241973
Alton 2320252022
Goshen220251968
Beaver220251990
Navajo Lake220091997
Bear River220251992
Wellington 2220062003
Callao220251992
Hatch220032003
Kamas220251998
Alton220012001
Cane Spr Des219941994
Timpie Spg120011979
Neponset Res120072007
Altonah120011973
Lost Cr. Res120082008
Saleratus Cr120151997
Oak City120141974
Logan Canyon120192009
Woodruff120252003
Boulder120162016
Aneth120142007

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.