BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Kansas

All statesWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Kansas has surged: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+85%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Blue Heron Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Blue Heron has surged in Kansas: up 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Great Blue Heron Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Kansas is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.27–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Kansas is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.27–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.302.4
20271.30.292.3
20281.30.282.3
20291.30.282.3
20301.30.272.3

Great Blue Heron Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Albert820251967
Melrose520231967
Galesburg520251970
Seneca520221968
Severance520252000
Kanopolis420251969
Pittsburg420212000
Trading Post420252000
Humboldt320221969
Lapland320221974
Coats320091973
Grantville320211968
Phillipsburg320251968
Gove320111976
Le Loup320212000
Olsburg320242000
Thrall219701968
Coldwater220191977
Ashland220211977
Olathe220211967
Ellinor220251967
Buckeye220221968
Rock Creek220211972
Reece220252001
Berwet220252000

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.