BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Kansas

All statesWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Kansas has surged: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+80%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Blue Heron Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Blue Heron has surged in Kansas: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Great Blue Heron Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Kansas is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.25–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.25–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Kansas is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.25–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.282.3
20261.30.272.3
20271.30.262.3
20281.30.252.3
20291.30.252.3

Great Blue Heron Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bucyrus720242022
Melrose520231967
Seneca520221968
Berwet520242000
Phillipsburg420221968
Pittsburg420212000
Galesburg320241970
Humboldt320221969
Lapland320221974
Coats320091973
Albert320241967
Grantville320211968
Hanover320231987
Gove320111976
Le Loup320212000
Olsburg320242000
Thrall219701968
Wellington220241979
Coldwater220191977
Ashland220211977
Olathe220211967
Barclay220241969
Buckeye220221968
Kanopolis220241969
Rock Creek220211972

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.