BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Ohio

All statesWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Ohio has increased: up 41% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+41%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Blue Heron Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Blue Heron in Ohio. See the full index history below.

Great Blue Heron Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Ohio is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.24–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Ohio is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.24–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.263.1
20261.70.253.1
20271.60.253.1
20281.60.243.0
20291.60.243.0

Great Blue Heron Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Graytown1619841966
Peru1419781966
Bismark719951969
Botkins620191992
Kunkle520241992
New Somerset519931972
N Baltimore420181966
Lenox420241966
Kings Creek420151993
New Dover420221966
Newport419931967
Ashley420161988
Napoleon320241966
Middlefield320171968
Troy319961980
Marion320231966
Fulton320241970
Adamsville319891972
Smithfield320231969
Harveysburg319961987
Cuba320241993
Hebron320241966
London320101998
Mohican S.F.320241992
Lockport220231988

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.