BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in South Dakota has increased: up 43% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+43%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Blue Heron Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Blue Heron in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Great Blue Heron Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in South Dakota is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 0.54 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.66Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±115.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in South Dakota is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 0.54 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.650.001.5
20270.650.001.5
20280.650.001.5
20290.650.001.5
20300.660.001.5

Great Blue Heron Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ottumwa720191980
Chamberlain420111968
Roswell420141985
Hayes420211989
Lane 2420142005
Geddes320251988
Winner320211970
Volunteer320191983
Turton320242008
Howard220251989
White Lake220111985
Rockyford220251976
Volga220251972
Britton220191983
Forbes220251967
French Creek220052005
Roubaix Lk219891989
Maurine220191982
Reva220192016
Pioneer220091992
S. Pioneer220211995
Wind Cave Np220192006
Lennox119961976
Tripp120151998
Rosebud119891988

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.