BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Minnesota has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-49%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Blue Heron Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Blue Heron in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Great Blue Heron Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Minnesota is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 0.87 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.77 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.77Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Minnesota is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 0.87 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.77 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.880.002.0
20260.850.001.9
20270.830.001.9
20280.800.001.9
20290.770.001.9

Great Blue Heron Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bemidji819801979
Ash Creek720241980
Sherburne Nr720241990
Brook Park620241998
Big Stone520121995
Princeton420241970
Hart Lake420091971
Oklee420141982
Tracy420242005
Minnetonka320241969
Cohasset320151974
Lake Bronson320111978
Fairmont320231993
Ashby320211997
Warroad320001999
Chatfield219981968
Maynard220001967
Dawson220191973
Wigwam Bay220231968
Edwards220231973
Grygla220171982
Badger220121978
Le Roy220241993
Austin220231994
Worthington220242006

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.