BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Minnesota has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-43%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Blue Heron Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Blue Heron in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Great Blue Heron Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.73 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.73Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.73 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.850.001.9
20270.820.001.9
20280.790.001.9
20290.760.001.8
20300.730.001.8

Great Blue Heron Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ash Creek1020251980
Bemidji819801979
Big Stone520121995
Minnetonka420251969
Princeton420241970
Hart Lake420091971
Oklee420141982
Sherburne Nr420251990
Cohasset320151974
Lake Bronson320111978
Fairmont320251993
Tracy320252005
Ashby320211997
Money Creek220251967
Chatfield219981968
Maynard220001967
Dawson220191973
Osseo220251967
St Stephen220251967
Wigwam Bay220231968
Edwards220231973
Grygla220171982
Badger220121978
Austin220231994
Worthington220242006

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.