BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Kentucky has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

16×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Blue Heron Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Blue Heron has surged in Kentucky: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Blue Heron Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Kentucky is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.1–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Kentucky is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.1–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.982.3
20261.71.02.4
20271.71.02.4
20281.71.12.4
20291.81.12.4

Great Blue Heron Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bardwell620031967
Eastview620241980
Kings Mtn520241970
Morganfield520242023
Riverqueen420232009
Bays Fork420192000
Canton320241970
Cedar Grove320241983
Dixon320242005
Pleasurevill320241981
Mcbrayer320242000
Hodgenville320031999
Kehoe 2320232010
Cumberlnd Gp220092005
Hegira220102000
Merrimac220241997
Gatewood220191971
Dixie220191984
Joy220231966
East Union220211997
Million 2220232006
Hodgenville 2220232008
Brownsville120242024
Lovelacevile120241970
Shiloh120241970

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.