BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Indiana

All statesWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Indiana has surged: up 229% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+229%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Blue Heron Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Blue Heron has surged in Indiana: up 229% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Blue Heron Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Indiana is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.4–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Indiana is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.4–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.31.33.2
20262.31.33.3
20272.31.43.3
20282.41.43.3
20292.41.43.4

Great Blue Heron Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Packertown1620041968
Decatur820241999
Pimento720241987
Gary519991984
Monticello520241986
Thorntown520241986
Millersburg520191990
Middlebury420241989
Wabash420241986
Jamestown420241991
Clear Spring420241983
Maplewood420212000
Hebron320191967
Knox320241982
Kewanna320181988
Middletown320241973
Friendswood320241987
Spencer320241973
Cumback320161981
Vevay320221979
New Brunswick320242024
Cuba320212017
Witts Station320242000
Indiana Dune320221993
Portage 2320232005

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.