Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Arizona
Great Blue Heron in Arizona has surged: up 241% on the route-weighted index since 1975.
+241%Since 1975
40Routes In State
48Years
Notable Great Blue Heron Trends in Arizona
long arc increasecomputed index
Great Blue Heron has surged in Arizona: up 241% on the route-weighted index since 1975.
Great Blue Heron Population Forecast in Arizona
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Arizona is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±251.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+33%Change by 2029
0.46Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.995% range
±251.5%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 1.9 |
| 2026 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 1.9 |
| 2027 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 1.9 |
| 2028 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 1.9 |
| 2029 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 1.9 |
Great Blue Heron Survey Routes in Arizona
| Palo Verde 2 | 10 | 2024 | 2014 |
| Palo Verde | 6 | 2013 | 1994 |
| Patagonia | 4 | 2017 | 1975 |
| Alamo Res. | 3 | 2016 | 2015 |
| Cutter | 3 | 2014 | 1993 |
| Prescott | 2 | 2016 | 1978 |
| Cutter 2 | 2 | 2018 | 2015 |
| Tonto Vill. | 2 | 2021 | 2006 |
| Bartlett Res | 2 | 2022 | 2022 |
| Happy Jack | 2 | 2022 | 1999 |
| Sprucedale | 2 | 1998 | 1998 |
| Black Mesa | 1 | 1992 | 1992 |
| New River | 1 | 2000 | 1992 |
| Florence | 1 | 1970 | 1970 |
| Laguna | 1 | 2023 | 1968 |
| Coolidge | 1 | 1977 | 1977 |
| Pomerene | 1 | 2024 | 1977 |
| San Simon | 1 | 1984 | 1982 |
| Peña Blanca | 1 | 2005 | 1994 |
| Riviera | 1 | 2023 | 2023 |
| Williams | 1 | 2018 | 1993 |
| Maine | 1 | 2011 | 2008 |
| Skull Valley | 1 | 2024 | 1999 |
| Forest Lakes | 1 | 2022 | 2022 |
| Pinetop | 1 | 2004 | 2004 |
Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States
alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.