BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Nevada

All statesWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Nevada has edged up: up 11% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+11%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Blue Heron Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Blue Heron in Nevada. See the full index history below.

Great Blue Heron Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Nevada is projected to fall about 50% by 2030 — from 0.29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±114.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±114.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Nevada is projected to fall about 50% by 2030 — from 0.29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±114.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.160.000.68
20270.160.000.68
20280.150.000.67
20290.150.000.67
20300.140.000.66

Great Blue Heron Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rye Patch319741970
Ruby Valley 2320242004
Gardnerville320061994
Carson River220052002
Ash Meadows220162000
Toiyabe Nf220152014
Fallon220251992
Virgin Creek119981998
Meadow Vally120181997
Eureka119951995
Majors Place120251991
Dobbin Creek119961972
Minerva119911991
Hiko120252001
Beatty120142014
Ruby Valley120001997
Nixon120251989
Bald Mtn.120032000
Chimney Res.120232016
Oreana120032002
Gardnerville 2120252013

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.