BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Nevada

All statesWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Nevada has edged down: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-25%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Blue Heron Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Blue Heron in Nevada. See the full index history below.

Great Blue Heron Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Nevada is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±157.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±157.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Nevada is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±157.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.160.000.68
20260.150.000.68
20270.150.000.67
20280.140.000.67
20290.140.000.66

Great Blue Heron Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rye Patch319741970
Ruby Valley 2320242004
Gardnerville320061994
Carson River220052002
Ash Meadows220162000
Toiyabe Nf220152014
Virgin Creek119981998
Meadow Vally120181997
Eureka119951995
Majors Place120181991
Dobbin Creek119961972
Minerva119911991
Hiko120222001
Beatty120142014
Ruby Valley120001997
Nixon120211989
Bald Mtn.120032000
Chimney Res.120232016
Oreana120032002
Fallon120221992
Gardnerville 2120152013

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.