BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Oregon

All statesWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Oregon has held roughly steady: up 6% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+6%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Blue Heron Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Blue Heron in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Great Blue Heron Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Oregon is projected to fall about 57% by 2030 — from 0.60 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-57%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Oregon is projected to fall about 57% by 2030 — from 0.60 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.85). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.300.000.90
20270.290.000.88
20280.280.000.87
20290.270.000.86
20300.260.000.85

Great Blue Heron Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Modoc Point 22120252024
Scappoose820251995
Svensen619921990
Madras620252015
Derby419931971
Davis Lake420242021
Malheur Nwr419981986
Modoc Point320181969
Joseph320251972
Princeton319851972
Emigrant Lk320011972
Fish Lake320251972
Salem320251993
Salado220161969
Umpqua220251971
Wedderburn220251970
Adair220251972
Scio220241972
Sparta220251978
Barnes Val219841973
Dayton220251973
Garfield220231973
Nicolai Mtn.220241993
Trask Summit220041998
Coquille220251994

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.