BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Oregon

All statesWetland birds

Great Blue Heron in Oregon has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-12%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Blue Heron Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Blue Heron in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Great Blue Heron Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Oregon is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Blue Heron in Oregon is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.290.000.88
20260.280.000.87
20270.270.000.86
20280.260.000.85
20290.240.000.84

Great Blue Heron Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Great Blue Heron in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glasgow720241986
Svensen619921990
Modoc Point 2620242024
Joseph520241972
Derby419931971
Fish Lake420221972
Davis Lake420242021
Malheur Nwr419981986
Umpqua320231971
Wedderburn320241970
Modoc Point320181969
Elk Lake320191972
Princeton319851972
Emigrant Lk320011972
Salado220161969
Adair220241972
Scio220241972
Barnes Val219841973
Dayton220241973
Garfield220231973
Nicolai Mtn.220241993
Trask Summit220041998
Warner Vally220191994
Mcminnville220241995
Sandy River220061993

Great Blue Heron Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.