BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in Oklahoma has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-53%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Belted Kingfisher Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has fallen sharply in Oklahoma: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Belted Kingfisher Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.000.36
20260.100.000.35
20270.100.000.35
20280.090.000.34
20290.090.000.34

Belted Kingfisher Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Barnsdall319771968
Bartlesville320041968
Heyburn320181993
Phillips220051968
Loco219831972
Hardesty219751975
Cooperton220221993
Sickles220172000
Arapaho220051993
Jet220221992
Ft Sill East219941994
Hee Mountain219991999
Big Cedar120151967
Blanco120161968
Mcalester119911968
Mill Creek120141967
Ardmore120051975
Phroso120241992
Cookietown120061970
Reed120051987
Baron120231967
Canadian120001975
Indianola120031972
Holdenville120241969
Beggs120041972

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.