BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in Minnesota has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-51%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Belted Kingfisher Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has fallen sharply in Minnesota: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Belted Kingfisher Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Minnesota is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Minnesota is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.000.40
20260.190.000.39
20270.190.000.39
20280.180.000.38
20290.180.000.38

Belted Kingfisher Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Austin320121993
Glendale320241993
Big Stone320061995
Courtland220241980
St Stephen220161968
Bena219671967
Little Fork220191981
Glenwood220151995
Bigfork220211993
Bagley220061995
Red Lake220171995
Chatfield 2220232005
Cass Lake219931984
Caledonia 2220142014
Money Creek120231967
Chatfield119971967
Hartland120111971
Huntley120181970
Chandler120231982
Ash Creek120231976
Millville119981967
Lakeville120041969
Minnetonka120111969
Arlington120221968
Redwood Fall119991980

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.