BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Missouri

All statesWetland birds

Belted Kingfisher in Missouri has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-55%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Belted Kingfisher Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has fallen sharply in Missouri: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Belted Kingfisher Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Missouri is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 0.28 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Missouri is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 0.28 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.190.000.48
20270.190.000.47
20280.190.000.47
20290.180.000.47
20300.180.000.46

Belted Kingfisher Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Frazier320211967
New Point320251994
Pulaski220121980
Cassville220231967
Handley220121967
Hayden220251983
Syracuse220161969
Sni Mills219761976
Rockingham220041972
Sticklervill219981988
Bolckow219901967
Kahoka2220212006
Rueter220182018
Milford220252016
Millwood220122006
Queen City220172017
Palace220252019
Gerald220252023
Deventer120151981
Norborne120092006
Sweden120191968
Pineville120231974
Cp Girardeau120251970
Cascade120241968
Cameron120171986

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.