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Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesWetland birds

Belted Kingfisher in Nebraska has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-57%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Belted Kingfisher Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has fallen sharply in Nebraska: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Belted Kingfisher Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Nebraska is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Nebraska is projected to fall about 42% by 2030 — from 0.08 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.060.000.20
20270.060.000.20
20280.050.000.19
20290.050.000.19
20300.050.000.19

Belted Kingfisher Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Johnson320221967
Oconto319711971
Brownlee320231993
Eagle Creek219801975
Boelus220222022
Julian120012000
Liberty120011975
Agate 2120072007
Seward120001997
Kenesaw119851974
Kearney120241970
Sumner120251968
Pine Ridge120231999
Gretna120141970
Irvington120091973
Richland120251977
Bartlett119711969
Almeria120141976
Paxton120151967
Dalton120041973
Sparta120191988
Winside119921976
Midway120041967
Johnstown120121978
Piester Lake120191977

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.