BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Belted Kingfisher Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Belted Kingfisher Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Virginia is projected to fall about 75% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-75%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Virginia is projected to fall about 75% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.49
20260.060.000.48
20270.050.000.46
20280.040.000.45
20290.020.000.44

Belted Kingfisher Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Star Tannery320161977
Taylorstown320101967
Ringgold320131989
Gloucester320211994
W Augusta220131967
Tryme220181982
Putnam220151970
Amherst220221968
Big Island220221968
Covesville220191971
Branchville220161967
Backbay219721966
Moran220222005
Nat Tunnel220191981
Churchville120061967
Stanley120171968
Edinburg120151973
Jerome120181974
Great Falls119661966
Port Royal120191987
Dryden119981991
David120121968
Isom120121969
Covington120021966
Newbern119821968

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.