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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesWetland birds

Belted Kingfisher in North Carolina has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-53%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Belted Kingfisher Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has fallen sharply in North Carolina: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Belted Kingfisher Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in North Carolina is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 0.25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in North Carolina is projected to fall about 46% by 2030 — from 0.25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.160.000.40
20270.150.000.40
20280.150.000.39
20290.140.000.38
20300.130.000.38

Belted Kingfisher Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Arapahoe419891966
Belgrade420032002
Biscoe320051992
French Broad River320242002
Merrimon220111972
Wards Corner220181966
Kinston220221968
Mooresville219991966
Oakboro220111980
Brevard220251969
Madison219741971
Cypress Cr220052000
Maple Hill220002000
Cokesbury220192001
Sheffield219941994
Dortches220251990
Pinelog220022002
Raeford219941990
Dismal Swamp220061993
Shallotte119911984
Myrtle Grove120161966
Hallsboro120151989
Fairmont119721970
Mashoes119711971
Beargrass119801971

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.