BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in Michigan has edged down: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-10%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Belted Kingfisher Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Belted Kingfisher in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Belted Kingfisher Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Michigan is projected to rise about 74% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.13–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+74%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.13–0.6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Michigan is projected to rise about 74% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.13–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.380.130.62
20260.370.130.62
20270.370.130.61
20280.370.130.61
20290.370.130.61

Belted Kingfisher Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Herman320221983
Walloon Lake320041985
New Buffalo320121995
Almena320151995
Maple Grove220231968
Shingleton220171981
Lake City220091985
Coopersville220221985
Monterey220221979
Riggsville220161971
Skeels220151966
Red Oak219951978
Oberlin220021973
Prattville220211968
Beaver Lake220111967
Owendale219941987
Seney Nwr220231992
Sidnaw220191998
Cluster Lakes220102006
Ontonagon120171971
Bergland120191979
Marenisco120171988
Bootjack120221994
Ned Lake120241986
Crystal Fls120221979

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.