BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in Pennsylvania has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-52%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Belted Kingfisher Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has fallen sharply in Pennsylvania: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Belted Kingfisher Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.03–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.03–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.310.050.57
20260.310.040.57
20270.300.040.56
20280.300.030.56
20290.290.030.55

Belted Kingfisher Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Millville420191969
Mt Gretna419991966
Sugar Grove420231980
Arnot320151999
Mifflintown320231966
Scheafferstn320011976
Gatchelville319901975
Akron319971997
Slippery Rk219901971
Akeley219761966
Teepleville220231967
Lynch220231977
Betula220221974
Eldred220191974
Ramsey220221969
Rush220211973
Bow Bridge220211969
Waller220231974
Honesdale220171973
Starlight219901970
Geeseytown220231987
Bald Eagle220181969
Waterstreet220241968
Doubling Gap219771966
Brunnerville220071971

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.