BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-71%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Belted Kingfisher Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has fallen sharply in Alaska: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Belted Kingfisher Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Alaska is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Alaska is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.280.000.76
20260.270.000.75
20270.250.000.74
20280.240.000.72
20290.230.000.71

Belted Kingfisher Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cordova420191983
Yakutat420241996
Thorne Bay 2420242013
Zimovia Strt420241988
Stikine River420242001
Bear Creek319911986
Thorne Bay320121990
Nicholai Sl320241993
Sitka (Short)319921984
Wrangell (Short)319841984
Juneau Alt219851984
Juneau220211985
Craig220241983
Ketchikan220211971
Beaver Creek219771977
Kodiak219841983
Anchor River220231984
Petersburg219871987
Mitkof Isle220221988
Kodiak 2220231985
Yakutat (Short)219841984
Kuiu Island220102010
Burma Road220091996
Skagway220241996
Togiak River220042001

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.