BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in California

All statesGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in California has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-13%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Belted Kingfisher Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Belted Kingfisher in California. See the full index history below.

Belted Kingfisher Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in California is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±99.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in California is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.000.26
20260.120.000.26
20270.110.000.26
20280.110.000.25
20290.110.000.25

Belted Kingfisher Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Orleans419831973
Horse Creek320191973
Genesee320241972
Higgins Corn320151977
Hullville220181973
Fish Rock220141970
Tres Pinos220001974
Yokohl Val219771975
Morro Bay219931974
Shasta Lake220071975
Fairfax220241973
Adelaida220241970
Arvin219811981
Likely220241974
Westley220211977
Jackson219921973
Oroville220241974
Honey Lake220081972
Redding219791979
Lockwood220161974
Poloma220111994
Gazelle220021991
Dirigio220052005
Paxton220042003
Last Chance220181993

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.