BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Vermont

All statesWetland birds

Belted Kingfisher in Vermont has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-42%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Belted Kingfisher Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Belted Kingfisher in Vermont. See the full index history below.

Belted Kingfisher Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Vermont is projected to fall about 61% by 2030 — from 0.28 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-61%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Vermont is projected to fall about 61% by 2030 — from 0.28 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.000.69
20270.150.000.68
20280.140.000.66
20290.120.000.65
20300.110.000.64

Belted Kingfisher Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Landgrove320071966
Stratton220231968
Middlesex220231968
Newbury219981988
Hardwick220241966
Grand Isle220251971
Marlboro120211967
North Pownal120231966
S Reading120191969
Gaysville120251966
Post Mills120241966
Shaftsbury120241970
S Wallingfrd120151969
W Rutland120251967
St Johnsbury120241971
East Haven120231966
Northfld Fls120181980
East Calais120241967
Greensboro120161969
Fletcher120111973
Waterville119801970
Hinesburg119931966
Colchester120251986
Newbury 2120232010
Stowe120161990

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.