BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher

AlcedinidaeWetland birdsMegaceryle alcyon

Belted Kingfisher has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-59%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2,887RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Belted Kingfisher

A shaggy-crested, blue-and-white bird of rivers, lakes and coasts, the Belted Kingfisher plunges headfirst after fish and nests in earthen burrows.

Size
11–14 in long, about 5.3 oz (28–35 cm, 150 g)
Habitat
Marshes, ponds, lakeshores and other freshwater wetlands.
Diet
Small fish caught by diving, plus crayfish and other aquatic prey.
Range
Recorded on 2,887 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 49 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Alcedinidae · Wetland birds
Conservation
Least Concern

Notable Belted Kingfisher TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has fallen sharply in surveyed states: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Belted Kingfisher Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.05–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.05–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.070.22
20260.140.060.22
20270.140.060.21
20280.130.050.21
20290.120.050.20

Where the Belted Kingfisher Is Detected

BBS routes recording Belted Kingfisher, sized by most recent count.

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend by State

Belted Kingfisher population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama-76%1968101
Alaska-71%197386
Arizonainsufficient datan/a6
Arkansas-38%196944
California-13%1970124
Colorado-76%197271
Connecticut-53%196919
Delaware+4%196811
Florida-86%196837
Georgia-69%196886
Idaho-81%197150
Illinois-18%196895
Indiana-54%196863
Iowa-25%196938
Kansas-65%196948
Kentucky+12%196859
Louisiana-28%196959
Maine-50%196871
Maryland-58%196868
Massachusetts-31%196932
Michigan-10%196898
Minnesota-51%196985
Mississippi+3%196850
Missouri-67%196975
Montana-21%197065
Nebraska-42%196936
Nevada-30%19959
New Hampshire-11%196826
New Jersey-52%196929
New Mexico-86%197517
New York-53%1968121
North Carolina-49%196888
North Dakota-53%197131
Ohio+17%196881
Oklahoma-53%196962
Oregon-56%197089
Pennsylvania-52%1968128
Rhode Islandinsufficient datan/a2
South Carolina-54%196838
South Dakota-44%196936
Tennessee-49%196851
Texas-77%196991
Utah-89%197618
Vermont-49%196826
Virginia-63%196876
Washington-14%197085
West Virginia-10%196862
Wisconsin-42%196897
Wyoming-31%197447

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Belted Kingfisher population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 2-74%19859
BCR 4-66%198245
Northern Pacific Rainforest-9%1970138
Great Basin-24%1970109
Northern Rockies-51%1970140
Prairie Potholes-14%196975
Boreal Hardwood Transition-17%1968119
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain-33%196881
Atlantic Northern Forest-55%1968149
Sierra Nevada-56%197422
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-35%197181
Badlands and Prairies-42%196959
Shortgrass Prairie-95%197034
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-35%196976
Edwards Plateau-82%197213
Oaks and Prairies-83%196957
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie-16%1968243
Prairie Hardwood Transition-41%1968154
Central Hardwoods-65%1968145
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas-59%196978
Mississippi Alluvial Valley+35%196948
Southeastern Coastal Plain-70%1968257
Appalachian Mountains-46%1968369
Piedmont-59%1968152
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast-57%1968129
Peninsular Florida-87%197016
Coastal California-26%197063
Gulf Coastal Prairie-80%197512

Belted Kingfisher Conservation Status

Least Concern

The IUCN Red List rates this species as Least Concern. Our route-weighted index shows it down about 59% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.