BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in Southeastern Coastal Plain has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-70%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
257Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has fallen sharply in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Belted Kingfisher In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.000.28
20260.110.000.27
20270.100.000.26
20280.090.000.26
20290.090.000.25

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gainestown FerryALABAMA82015
SandhillsSOUTH-CAROLINA52024
LathamALABAMA41979
FoleyALABAMA41977
FayetteMISSISSIPPI42003
Duck HillMISSISSIPPI42023
ArapahoeNORTH-CAROLINA41989
BelgradeNORTH-CAROLINA42003
SouthALABAMA32004
FairviewALABAMA32018
Oak GroveFLORIDA32011
PittsGEORGIA32024
St FlorianALABAMA22010
Warrior StdALABAMA22015
BrundidgeALABAMA22021
BrantleyALABAMA22021
BeatriceALABAMA22007
EpesALABAMA22021
ElamvilleALABAMA22022
Rock ChapelALABAMA22011
MadridALABAMA22014
CitronelleALABAMA22022
St. ElmoALABAMA22013
Broad BranchFLORIDA22011
LovedaleFLORIDA22006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.