BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in Prairie Potholes has edged down: down 14% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-14%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Belted Kingfisher in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Belted Kingfisher In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±63.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±63.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.000.22
20260.090.000.21
20270.090.000.21
20280.090.000.21
20290.090.000.21

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big StoneMINNESOTA32006
ZearingIOWA21995
CourtlandMINNESOTA22024
ClevelandMONTANA21989
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA21980
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA22024
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA22018
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA21999
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA22014
PantherIOWA12007
WashingtonIOWA12009
KanawhaIOWA12024
ScrantonIOWA12019
ClareIOWA12009
GarnerIOWA11991
TitonkaIOWA12017
MccallsburgIOWA12023
HartlandMINNESOTA12011
HuntleyMINNESOTA12018
ChandlerMINNESOTA12023
ArlingtonMINNESOTA12022
Redwood FallMINNESOTA11999
MaynardMINNESOTA12003
DawsonMINNESOTA12003
AppletonMINNESOTA12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.