BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-16%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
243Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Belted Kingfisher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Belted Kingfisher In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.04–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.04–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.180.040.33
20260.180.040.33
20270.180.040.32
20280.180.040.32
20290.180.040.32

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BelleviewILLINOIS62024
EssexILLINOIS41990
Concord WestILLINOIS42017
AtkinsonILLINOIS32024
RensselaerINDIANA32015
WashtaIOWA32013
AustinMINNESOTA32012
FrazierMISSOURI32021
JohnsonNEBRASKA32022
NewportOHIO31994
Mill CreekILLINOIS22019
Deer CreekILLINOIS22024
MinonkILLINOIS22012
MilfordILLINOIS22017
RobinsonILLINOIS22002
SherrardILLINOIS22017
Duncan MillsILLINOIS22019
GreenviewILLINOIS22024
AldenILLINOIS22023
PaysonILLINOIS22017
GaryINDIANA21993
WabashINDIANA22023
BerneINDIANA21969
JamestownINDIANA22024
Portage 2INDIANA22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.