BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Belted Kingfisher In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieWetland birds

Belted Kingfisher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-1%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
243Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Belted Kingfisher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Belted Kingfisher In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 0.24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.04–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 0.24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.04–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.190.040.33
20270.180.040.33
20280.180.040.33
20290.180.040.33
20300.180.040.33

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EssexILLINOIS41990
Concord WestILLINOIS42017
AtkinsonILLINOIS32024
GeneseoILLINOIS32025
RensselaerINDIANA32015
Ash CreekMINNESOTA32025
AustinMINNESOTA32012
FrazierMISSOURI32021
New PointMISSOURI32025
JohnsonNEBRASKA32022
NewportOHIO31994
Deer CreekILLINOIS22024
MinonkILLINOIS22012
MilfordILLINOIS22017
BradburyILLINOIS22025
RobinsonILLINOIS22002
SherrardILLINOIS22017
Duncan MillsILLINOIS22019
GreenviewILLINOIS22024
AldenILLINOIS22023
PaysonILLINOIS22017
DudleyvilleILLINOIS22025
GaryINDIANA21993
BerneINDIANA21969
JamestownINDIANA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.