BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in Oaks and Prairies has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-83%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has collapsed in Oaks and Prairies: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Belted Kingfisher In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.20
20260.010.000.20
20270.010.000.19
20280.000.000.18
20290.000.000.18

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA31977
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA32004
HeyburnOKLAHOMA32018
DuranTEXAS31995
LocoOKLAHOMA21983
Peach CreekTEXAS21991
Massey LakeTEXAS21995
KosseTEXAS21975
OlaTEXAS22017
DallasTEXAS21992
Glen RoseTEXAS22018
Thornton 2TEXAS21998
Blue RidgeTEXAS22007
CleburneTEXAS22007
DecaturTEXAS22001
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA12014
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA12005
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA12024
BeggsOKLAHOMA12004
ChoctawOKLAHOMA12021
NobleOKLAHOMA12022
TatumsOKLAHOMA12011
DuncanOKLAHOMA12012
SkiatookOKLAHOMA12012
Arenosa CrkTEXAS11977

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.