BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Belted Kingfisher In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsWetland birds

Belted Kingfisher in Appalachian Mountains has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-47%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
370Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Belted Kingfisher in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Belted Kingfisher In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 0.37 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.14–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.31Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–0.4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 0.37 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.14–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.340.160.51
20270.330.150.51
20280.330.150.50
20290.320.140.49
20300.310.140.49

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DurhamNEW-YORK61976
Signal MtnTENNESSEE62025
CedarvilleWEST-VIRGINIA62023
McdonaldWEST-VIRGINIA62023
RiversideALABAMA52013
FloydMARYLAND42001
Phillips CrNEW-YORK42016
MillvillePENNSYLVANIA42019
Valley HeadWEST-VIRGINIA42025
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY32018
CamptonKENTUCKY32021
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY31994
CooperstownNEW-YORK31977
French Broad RiverNORTH-CAROLINA32024
ArnotPENNSYLVANIA32015
BeaverPENNSYLVANIA32025
MifflintownPENNSYLVANIA32023
ScheafferstnPENNSYLVANIA32001
McfarlandTENNESSEE31993
Star TanneryVIRGINIA32016
BreedenWEST-VIRGINIA32022
RockportWEST-VIRGINIA32022
Yellow SpgWEST-VIRGINIA32023
Glade Run 2WEST-VIRGINIA32009
DearmanvilleALABAMA21983

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.