BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Generalists

Belted Kingfisher in BCR 2 has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-74%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has fallen sharply in BCR 2: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Belted Kingfisher In BCR 2 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 32% by 2028 — from 0.22 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 32% by 2028 — from 0.22 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.210.001.1
20250.200.001.1
20260.180.001.1
20270.170.001.0
20280.150.001.0

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KodiakALASKA21984
Kodiak 2ALASKA22023
Togiak RiverALASKA22004
Katmai N.P.ALASKA11994
ChiniakALASKA12022
DillinghamALASKA12011
Cold BayALASKA12019
King SalmonALASKA12002
Kanektok RivALASKA11995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.