BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in Prairie Hardwood Transition has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-41%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
154Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Belted Kingfisher in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Belted Kingfisher In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.030.45
20260.230.020.44
20270.220.010.43
20280.220.010.43
20290.210.000.42

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EllisINDIANA52022
GuilfordILLINOIS42023
KnoxINDIANA32019
Packertown 2INDIANA32017
New BuffaloMICHIGAN32012
AlmenaMICHIGAN32015
TrempealeauWISCONSIN32024
EdenWISCONSIN32023
Columbia CtyINDIANA22024
LagrangeINDIANA22012
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN22022
MontereyMICHIGAN22022
PrattvilleMICHIGAN22021
OwendaleMICHIGAN21994
St StephenMINNESOTA22016
GlenwoodMINNESOTA22015
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA22023
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA22014
N BaltimoreOHIO22013
Newburg CrnsWISCONSIN22022
N AndoverWISCONSIN22023
MerideanWISCONSIN21999
HighlandWISCONSIN22024
Cherry ValILLINOIS11993
Cherry Val 2ILLINOIS12004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.