BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in Sierra Nevada has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-56%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has fallen sharply in Sierra Nevada: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Belted Kingfisher In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 89% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-89%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 89% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.30
20260.040.000.30
20270.030.000.29
20280.030.000.29
20290.020.000.28

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GeneseeCALIFORNIA32024
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA32015
PaxtonCALIFORNIA22004
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA22018
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA12018
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA11979
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA12010
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA12013
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA12012
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA11978
SattleyCALIFORNIA12024
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA11992
DownievilleCALIFORNIA12013
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA11980
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA11986
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA12015
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA12018
PlacervilleCALIFORNIA12009
CoultervilleCALIFORNIA12006
WawonaCALIFORNIA12012
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA12001
ChilcootCALIFORNIA11998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.