BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-35%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Belted Kingfisher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Belted Kingfisher In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.21
20260.070.000.21
20270.060.000.20
20280.060.000.20
20290.060.000.20

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JewellKANSAS31994
OcontoNEBRASKA31971
BrownleeNEBRASKA32023
WellingtonKANSAS22018
BuckeyeKANSAS22000
LoganKANSAS22010
BoelusNEBRASKA22022
CoopertonOKLAHOMA22022
SicklesOKLAHOMA22017
ArapahoOKLAHOMA22005
JetOKLAHOMA22022
Ft Sill EastOKLAHOMA21994
DaltonKANSAS12024
CoatsKANSAS12009
ColdwaterKANSAS12010
AshlandKANSAS12005
ChapmanKANSAS11978
AlbertKANSAS11999
KanopolisKANSAS12010
GrayKANSAS11975
HaysKANSAS11982
LeovilleKANSAS11995
HanoverKANSAS12003
HollenbergKANSAS12023
MinneapolisKANSAS11985

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.