BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Belted Kingfisher In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieWetland birds

Belted Kingfisher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-56%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has fallen sharply in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Belted Kingfisher In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.070.000.20
20270.060.000.20
20280.060.000.20
20290.060.000.20
20300.060.000.19

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JewellKANSAS31994
OcontoNEBRASKA31971
BrownleeNEBRASKA32023
BuckeyeKANSAS22000
LoganKANSAS22010
BoelusNEBRASKA22022
CoopertonOKLAHOMA22022
SicklesOKLAHOMA22017
ArapahoOKLAHOMA22005
JetOKLAHOMA22022
Ft Sill EastOKLAHOMA21994
WellingtonKANSAS12025
DaltonKANSAS12024
CoatsKANSAS12009
ColdwaterKANSAS12010
AshlandKANSAS12005
ChapmanKANSAS11978
AlbertKANSAS11999
KanopolisKANSAS12010
GrayKANSAS11975
HaysKANSAS11982
LeovilleKANSAS11995
HanoverKANSAS12003
HollenbergKANSAS12023
MinneapolisKANSAS11985

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.