BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in Piedmont has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-59%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
152Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has fallen sharply in Piedmont: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Belted Kingfisher In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Piedmont is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Piedmont is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.000.48
20260.140.000.47
20270.140.000.46
20280.130.000.45
20290.120.000.45

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EarltonMARYLAND42024
Mt GretnaPENNSYLVANIA41999
SiloamGEORGIA32012
OlneyMARYLAND32024
PottersvilleNEW-JERSEY32013
BiscoeNORTH-CAROLINA32005
GatchelvillePENNSYLVANIA31990
AkronPENNSYLVANIA31997
SalemSOUTH-CAROLINA32014
TaylorstownVIRGINIA32010
RinggoldVIRGINIA32013
HollonvilleGEORGIA22002
HiramGEORGIA21984
Stoney Point 2GEORGIA22018
Silver SpgMARYLAND21989
Upper XrdsMARYLAND22003
Van BibberMARYLAND22010
IjamsvilleMARYLAND22023
MooresvilleNORTH-CAROLINA21999
OakboroNORTH-CAROLINA22011
MadisonNORTH-CAROLINA21974
SheffieldNORTH-CAROLINA21994
AspersPENNSYLVANIA21988
JacobusPENNSYLVANIA22022
Little MtnSOUTH-CAROLINA21986

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.