BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in Northern Rockies has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-51%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
140Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has fallen sharply in Northern Rockies: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Belted Kingfisher In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±140.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±140.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±140.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.000.40
20260.190.000.40
20270.190.000.40
20280.190.000.39
20290.180.000.39

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SpartaOREGON202001
Fish CreekMONTANA62024
OchocoOREGON42003
Crane CreekIDAHO31998
SulaMONTANA32019
Wise RiverMONTANA32005
NezperceIDAHO22012
GoldenIDAHO22016
Nezperce NfIDAHO21998
PierceIDAHO22005
Yellow PineIDAHO22009
N Fork Cda RIDAHO22019
St MaryMONTANA22002
AugustaMONTANA22017
WoodmanMONTANA22024
Willow CreekMONTANA21981
LimaMONTANA22024
GreenoughMONTANA21995
Elevation MtMONTANA22022
Greenoagh 2MONTANA22008
MonumentOREGON22013
DesolationOREGON21999
CurlewWASHINGTON22018
NorthportWASHINGTON22019
Green RiverWYOMING21982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.