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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-59%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has fallen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Belted Kingfisher In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±128.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.27
20260.000.000.27
20270.000.000.27
20280.000.000.27
20290.000.000.27

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Old MiloARKANSAS22009
Locust BayouARKANSAS22022
Coal HillARKANSAS22010
NanceARKANSAS22022
CypressLOUISIANA21987
TroutLOUISIANA22018
NatchitochesLOUISIANA21989
PhillipsOKLAHOMA22005
Hee MountainOKLAHOMA21999
MortonTEXAS22012
SmyrnaTEXAS21995
RamseyARKANSAS11986
StampsARKANSAS12018
HopeARKANSAS12009
AshdownARKANSAS11992
CrowsARKANSAS11990
PoyenARKANSAS12000
HollywoodARKANSAS11994
BlakelyARKANSAS11996
WaldronARKANSAS11996
StarkARKANSAS12021
MassardARKANSAS11983
HavanaARKANSAS12016
PrincetonARKANSAS12011
Dry ForkARKANSAS12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.