BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in Coastal California has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-26%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Belted Kingfisher in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Belted Kingfisher In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Coastal California is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±155.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±155.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Coastal California is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±155.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.000.33
20260.140.000.33
20270.140.000.32
20280.140.000.32
20290.140.000.32

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tres PinosCALIFORNIA22000
Yokohl ValCALIFORNIA21977
Morro BayCALIFORNIA21993
FairfaxCALIFORNIA22024
AdelaidaCALIFORNIA22024
ArvinCALIFORNIA21981
WestleyCALIFORNIA22021
JacksonCALIFORNIA21992
OrovilleCALIFORNIA22024
ReddingCALIFORNIA21979
LockwoodCALIFORNIA22016
PolomaCALIFORNIA22011
Red BluffCALIFORNIA12014
CalpellaCALIFORNIA11980
PenningtonCALIFORNIA12023
RumseyCALIFORNIA12006
RiovistaCALIFORNIA12011
CollegevilleCALIFORNIA12004
HughsonCALIFORNIA12024
GravesboroCALIFORNIA11986
Santa YnezCALIFORNIA11986
Foster ParkCALIFORNIA11987
MorenoCALIFORNIA11978
HollisterCALIFORNIA12007
CoalingaCALIFORNIA12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.