BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Belted Kingfisher In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Wetland birds

Belted Kingfisher in BCR 4 has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

-69%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has fallen sharply in BCR 4: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Belted Kingfisher In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 38% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.210.000.53
20270.200.000.52
20280.200.000.51
20290.190.000.51
20300.190.000.50

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bear CreekALASKA31991
Anchor RiverALASKA22023
Nicholai SlALASKA22025
Kanuti LakeALASKA22022
CircleALASKA12018
Chatanika RALASKA11995
Birch LakeALASKA12024
SlanaALASKA12002
ChistochinaALASKA12025
NorthwayALASKA12019
MonahanALASKA11996
CantwellALASKA12005
Goose BayALASKA11976
Skilak LakeALASKA11984
KalifonskyALASKA12018
MatanuskaALASKA11983
WillowALASKA12024
Kenny LakeALASKA12023
SourdoughALASKA12022
TonsinaALASKA12021
ChickenALASKA12013
SavageALASKA12009
Hatcher PassALASKA12016
Chena Hot Spring 2ALASKA12019
PetersvilleALASKA12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.