BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Belted Kingfisher In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsWetland birds

Belted Kingfisher in Central Hardwoods has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-68%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
145Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has fallen sharply in Central Hardwoods: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Belted Kingfisher In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 66% by 2030 — from 0.31 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-66%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 66% by 2030 — from 0.31 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.150.000.45
20270.140.000.44
20280.130.000.43
20290.120.000.42
20300.100.000.40

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TrianaALABAMA42012
MillionKENTUCKY41986
WrigleyTENNESSEE42022
HustonvilleKENTUCKY32022
Sewell ShopKENTUCKY32025
East UnionKENTUCKY32022
Levee 2KENTUCKY32019
HillsboroALABAMA21996
LurtonARKANSAS22016
AvocaARKANSAS22001
Cave In RockILLINOIS22023
WashingtonINDIANA22025
CelestineINDIANA22025
New PhilaINDIANA22022
CorydonINDIANA22022
VevayINDIANA22024
Iron BridgeKENTUCKY21988
MerrimacKENTUCKY22022
GatewoodKENTUCKY21995
JoyKENTUCKY22023
RiverqueenKENTUCKY22025
PulaskiMISSOURI22012
CassvilleMISSOURI22023
HandleyMISSOURI22012
HaydenMISSOURI22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.