BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Alabama

All statesGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in Alabama has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-76%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Belted Kingfisher Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has collapsed in Alabama: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Belted Kingfisher Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Alabama is projected to rise about 118% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±171.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+118%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±171.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Alabama is projected to rise about 118% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±171.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.000.57
20260.260.000.56
20270.250.000.55
20280.240.000.54
20290.230.000.53

Belted Kingfisher Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gainestown Ferry820151999
Riverside520131999
Latham419791968
Foley419771970
Triana420121999
South320041972
Fairview320181991
St Florian220101978
Hillsboro219961972
Dearmanville219831969
Smyer Lake220111966
Warrior Std220151967
Brundidge220211966
Brantley220211966
Beatrice220071966
Birmingham219941970
Epes220211980
Elamville220221984
Rock Chapel220111995
Madrid220141995
Kymulga220042003
Talladega220192002
Citronelle220222000
St. Elmo220132013
Trade120051970

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.