BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in Texas has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-77%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Belted Kingfisher Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has collapsed in Texas: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Belted Kingfisher Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±138.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±138.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±138.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.13
20260.000.000.13
20270.000.000.13
20280.000.000.13
20290.000.000.13

Belted Kingfisher Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Duran319951995
Katy219751975
Rock Island219981994
Peach Creek219911971
Georgetown219801980
Massey Lake219951970
Kosse219751969
Adamsville219941972
Morton220121972
Ola220171970
Dallas219921970
Glen Rose220181968
Thornton 2219981998
Blue Ridge220072001
Cleburne220072007
Smyrna219951995
Decatur220011995
Hinkles Fer119961996
Stowell119711971
Danbury119811981
Arenosa Crk119771977
Muldoon120221974
Boerne119951976
Lone Oak119841984
Hondo119871980

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.