BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in New York has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-53%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
121Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Belted Kingfisher Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has fallen sharply in New York: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Belted Kingfisher Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in New York is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in New York is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.030.44
20260.220.020.43
20270.210.010.42
20280.210.000.41
20290.200.000.40

Belted Kingfisher Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Durham619761966
Austerlitz420041966
Phillips Cr420161967
Cooperstown319771968
Oneida320081968
Salem320211967
North Easton320171967
Parishville320231968
Westhampton220051969
Huntington220231966
Somers219751970
Catskills219891989
Ghent220161966
Ballston Lk219951967
Whitney Pt220181966
Oxford219751975
Lisle220131967
Trumansburg220231978
Canadice L220241968
Gainesville220011967
Castile220131967
Centerville220131967
Nashville220181968
St Johnsburg220221998
Cicero Ctr220241966

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.