BirdAnalyst
Species · Illinois · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Illinois

All statesGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in Illinois has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-18%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Belted Kingfisher Trends in IllinoisNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Belted Kingfisher in Illinois. See the full index history below.

Belted Kingfisher Population Forecast in Illinois

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Illinois is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Illinois is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.000.46
20260.230.000.46
20270.230.000.46
20280.230.000.46
20290.230.000.46

Belted Kingfisher Survey Routes in Illinois

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Illinois.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Belleview620241968
Guilford420231967
Essex419901985
Concord West420172002
Atkinson320241987
Mill Creek220191967
Deer Creek220241966
Minonk220121987
Milford220171966
Belknap220181970
Robinson220022002
Sherrard220171994
Duncan Mills220192019
Greenview220242024
Cave In Rock220231994
Alden220232023
Payson220172000
Holcomb120161972
Cherry Val119931973
Barrington119951995
Itasca119961992
Geneseo120081967
Putnam120231980
Sheffield120171966
Buda120061988

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.