BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in New Jersey has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-52%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Belted Kingfisher Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has fallen sharply in New Jersey: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Belted Kingfisher Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in New Jersey is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±123%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in New Jersey is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.000.31
20260.100.000.31
20270.100.000.31
20280.100.000.30
20290.100.000.30

Belted Kingfisher Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pottersville320131980
Six Points220172017
Albion219881968
Ramseysburg220211995
Woodbury Hgt120241989
Greenwich120061990
Deepwater119691969
Masonville119671967
Sandbrook120081972
Clarksville119831983
New Bedford120091975
Croton120011971
Hope119921972
Midvale120051971
Kemah Lake120241968
Bloomsbury120141978
High Point119981980
Dover120231979
Gillette120191991
Keyport120111993
Cranbury120001993
Roosevelt119981992
Pomona119921992
Ocean City119881986
Villas119801980

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.