BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGeneralists

Belted Kingfisher in Kansas has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-65%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Belted Kingfisher Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Belted Kingfisher has fallen sharply in Kansas: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Belted Kingfisher Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±91.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Belted Kingfisher in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.22
20260.040.000.22
20270.040.000.21
20280.040.000.21
20290.030.000.21

Belted Kingfisher Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Belted Kingfisher in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jewell319941968
Wellington220181968
Dover220031971
Buckeye220001967
Logan220101974
Melrose119961972
Galesburg119721972
Humboldt120011968
Lapland120151976
Dalton120241978
Coats120091967
Coldwater120101976
Ashland120051970
Lakin119941994
Olathe120131967
Barclay120221969
Wreford120221967
Ellinor119861986
Chapman119781970
Albert119991981
Kanopolis120101975
Gray119751967
Hays119821982
Leoville119951970
Grantville120101971

Belted Kingfisher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.